Eighteen Vessels Struck in Seventeen Attacks Over Nineteen Days; Hormuz Transits Down 97 Percent; U.S. Strikes Coastal Missile Sites

PERSIAN GULF / RED SEA / IRAN — At least 18 vessels have been struck in 17 separate attacks by Iranian weapons across the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and Iraqi territorial waters since Operation Epic Fury began on 28 February. On 18 March, CENTCOM struck hardened Iranian anti-ship cruise missile installations along the Strait of Hormuz coastline using multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions, targeting the coastal infrastructure that enables Iran’s de facto maritime blockade.

Commercial transit remains at approximately 97 percent below its pre-conflict baseline, with only 21 tankers transiting since the conflict began versus a pre-war average of more than 100 daily crossings, according to Windward maritime tracking data. Approximately 22 vessels carrying crude, LPG, and LNG remain anchored in the strait awaiting safe passage confirmation. No credible ceasefire mechanism exists; both sides have publicly rejected diplomatic efforts.

Situation at a Glance

• Vessel attacks: 18 vessels struck in 17 attacks since 28 February across seven identified flag states. At least 16 crew killed or missing. Approximately 22 vessels anchored in the strait awaiting safe passage.
• Hormuz status: CRITICAL. Only 21 tankers have transited since 28 February versus 100+ daily pre-war. CENTCOM struck coastal anti-ship missile sites on 18 March. Five bulk carriers observed routing through Iranian territorial waters, indicating selective permission-based transit.
• Bab el-Mandeb: ELEVATED. Houthi threats resumed. No confirmed attacks. 122 transits during week two as Hormuz alternative.
• Iranian retaliation: Shah gas field drone strike (16 March). Fujairah port attacked three times in four days. Al-Kharj, Saudi Arabia, struck by projectile, two killed. 1,800+ missiles and drones fired at the UAE.
• Strikes on Iran: CENTCOM reported 100+ Iranian naval vessels destroyed, including the entire conventional surface fleet. 2,000 targets struck in the first 100 hours. B-2 bombers destroyed 90 military targets on Kharg Island on 13-14 March.
• Oil: Brent crude at approximately $102 per barrel as of 18 March, up more than 40 percent since 27 February.
• Insurance: War risk premiums at 1 to 3 percent of hull value for Gulf transit, up from 0.25 percent. Daily VLCC charter rates more than doubled to a record $424,000, exceeding the 2008 peak.
• Travel: US Level 4 for Iran and Iraq. Level 3 for nine additional countries. Four US embassies closed. Five airspaces closed by NOTAM. 24 percent of Middle East flights canceled.
• Maritime advisories: MARAD 2026-004 active (warns of direct missile, UAV, and USV attacks; GNSS spoofing). UKMTO/JMIC threat level CRITICAL. P&I insurance cancelled since 5 March.
• Ceasefire: Dead. Both sides have rejected all diplomatic efforts. No off-ramp visible.

Chokepoint Status

Commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed 97 percent from its pre-conflict baseline of approximately 138 daily crossings to two on 16 March. Five bulk carriers observed on 15 to 16 March routing through Iranian territorial waters rather than the standard international navigation channel suggest Iran may be implementing selective permission-based transit.

The Bab el-Mandeb remains at ELEVATED threat level. Houthi threats against commercial shipping resumed but no confirmed attacks have occurred since Operation Epic Fury began. 122 commercial transits were recorded during week two as some operators diverted from Hormuz to Red Sea routing. The Suez Canal remains open but transit volumes are depressed due to the collapse of Gulf feeder traffic.

Assessment: If the permission-based transit pattern holds, the Strait of Hormuz transforms from a closed chokepoint into a passage controlled by Tehran. Iran would gain leverage over which vessels, flag states, and cargoes may transit. The five bulk carriers represent a proof of concept, not yet a settled pattern.

Strikes and Retaliation

U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper stated on 16 March that Iran's entire conventional surface fleet had been destroyed, presenting before-and-after imagery documenting strikes on a Tehran attack drone production factory, the Yazdi military depot torpedo production lines, and a naval drone storage facility. CENTCOM has struck over 2,000 targets inside Iran since 28 February.

B-2 Spirit stealth bombers destroyed 90 military targets on Kharg Island during a 13 to 14 March campaign. On 18 March, CENTCOM confirmed strikes using multiple 5,000-pound deep penetrator munitions against hardened anti-ship cruise missile installations along the Hormuz coastline, directly targeting the infrastructure that threatens commercial shipping. Iranian missile attacks have dropped approximately 90 percent from their peak, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Iran responded by expanding its target set beyond military objectives. The Shah gas field, a joint venture between Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) and Occidental Petroleum located 180 kilometers southwest of Abu Dhabi, was set on fire by a drone strike on 16 March, threatening 20 percent of UAE natural gas supply.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared UAE ports, docks, and military locations “legitimate targets” on 14 March following the Kharg strikes. Saudi Arabia intercepted approximately 60 Iranian drones overnight on 15 to 16 March, and a separate projectile struck a residential area in al-Kharj, killing two civilians.

Three carrier strike groups remain deployed: USS Abraham Lincoln (CVN-72) in the Arabian Sea, USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) in the Red Sea, and USS Harry S. Truman (CVN-75) with an extended deployment to maintain three-carrier presence in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.

Official Statements

• Admiral Brad Cooper, CENTCOM (16 March): Announced destruction of 100+ Iranian naval vessels. Presented before-and-after imagery of destroyed drone factory, torpedo production facility, and naval infrastructure. Source: DVIDSHUB.
• IRGC (14 March): Declared UAE ports, docks, and military locations “legitimate targets” following Kharg Island B-2 strikes. Source: IRGC media.
• US Department of State (3 March): Issued Level 4 Do Not Travel advisory for Iran; Level 3 for UAE. Four embassies closed. Source: State Department.

Travel and Maritime Advisories

U.S. Department of State: Level 4 (Do Not Travel) for Iran and Iraq. Level 3 (Reconsider Travel) for UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Jordan, Pakistan, and Cyprus. Four U.S. embassies closed.

The UK FCDO has issued updated warnings covering 21 countries, advising against all travel to Iran, Iraq, Israel, Palestinian Territories, Lebanon, and Afghanistan, and against all but essential travel to UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar.

Airspace: Iran, Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Syria closed by NOTAM. EASA Conflict Zone warning covers 11 countries at all altitudes. Dubai International Airport operating on limited schedule after fourth drone-related incident.

Most international carriers have withdrawn from Gulf airspace. Approximately 24 percent of Middle East flights canceled.

Maritime: MARAD Advisory 2026-004 (supersedes 2026-001A) warns of direct missile, UAV, and USV attacks on commercial shipping. Instructs vessels to ignore Iranian VHF diversion orders. Reports significant GNSS spoofing and jamming.

UKMTO/JMIC threat level CRITICAL. P&I insurance for the Gulf cancelled since 5 March. All major container carriers (Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC, Hapag-Lloyd) have suspended Gulf transits.

Watchlist: Next 24 to 72 Hours

• Permission-based transit: Monitor whether additional vessels transit through Iranian territorial waters. Expansion would confirm Iran's shift from blockade to selective control.
• Shah gas field status: Fire reported 16 March. Extended outage would reduce UAE gas supply by 20 percent.
• Houthi operational posture: Resumption of attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb would create simultaneous dual-chokepoint disruption.
• IEA reserve drawdown pace: 90-day window began 11 March. Rate indicates market confidence in conflict duration.
• Fujairah anchorage: Three attacks in four days. Further attacks could force complete evacuation of the last staging area near the strait.

The ceasefire deadlock is the single most consequential variable for shipping resumption. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated on 15 March: “We never asked for a ceasefire.” President Trump stated on 17 March: “We’re not ready to leave yet.”

CENTCOM’s destruction of coastal anti-ship missile sites reduces one threat vector but does not address mines, drones, USVs, or the insurance market’s risk calculus. At 1 to 3 percent of hull value per transit, the commercial case for entering the Gulf has collapsed regardless of military escort.

The IEA’s 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release provides roughly 40 days of coverage. If Hormuz remains closed beyond mid-April, the economic pressure on all parties intensifies, but neither side has indicated that economic pressure alone will force concessions.