OSINT Intelligence Tracking · Updated July 2026
Level Changes
Track all OSINT-based DEFCON level estimates and changes with documented reasons. These are intelligence assessments, not confirmed government classifications.
Note: These are OSINT estimates, not confirmed government classifications. For confirmed DEFCON changes released in declassified records, visit our History page.
About Confirmed vs Unofficial Changes
DEFCON levels can be categorized as either confirmed or unofficial based on verified documentation:
Confirmed Changes
Confirmed DEFCON changes are those released in declassified records or government statements. These are rare and typically only revealed years after the fact for security reasons.
Unofficial Changes (OSINT Estimates)
Unofficial changes are OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) estimates based on available information, military activities, geopolitical events, and intelligence analysis.
Recent Level Changes
View Confirmed History →
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: July 7: US Launches Strikes Against Iran In Response To Iranian Targeting Of Commercial Vessels
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. Central Command Launches Strikes on Iranian Targets After Drone Attack on Tanker M/T Kiku
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: CENTCOM: U.S. Strikes Iran In Response To Attack On Commercial Vessel on June 26. The IRGC said that it targeted U.S. positions within the region in response.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: On June 15 the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran announced they had reached a memorandum of understanding on the cessation of hostilities and other matters.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: According to U.S. Central Command, U.S. forces intercepted and shot down multiple one-way attack drones that Iran launched in an attempt to strike commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on June 13.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. President Donald Trump has cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. The decision followed discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran that reached the highest level of Iranian leadership and received approval from all parties involved.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: CENTCOM: U.S. forces “began launching self-defense strikes against Iran at 5 p.m. ET today at the Commander in Chief’s direction, in response to yesterday’s downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter."
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles Toward Israel, U.S. Regional Forces At Heightened Alert. Iranian forces launched multiple waves of ballistic missiles toward Israeli territory beginning June 7. Israeli air defense systems engaged the missiles while sirens activated across several areas through June 8.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. forces in the Middle East shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones that threatened international maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on June 7.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. forces struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island to defend against further maritime attacks, and intercepted multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf neighbors on June 5.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. Central Command Confirms Self-Defense Strikes in Southern Iran After Explosions Reported Near Bandar Abbas. US Issues Title 42 Order Suspending Entry from Ebola-Affected Countries in Central Africa. Lithuania Issues Public Air Alert After Suspected Drone Near Belarus. U.S. carries out second strike against ISIS in Nigeria. Nigeria’s Defense Headquarters said the new strikes “follow the neutralization of ISIS commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.” President Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: US Issues Title 42 Order Suspending Entry from Ebola-Affected Countries in Central Africa. Lithuania Issues Public Air Alert After Suspected Drone Near Belarus. U.S. carries out second strike against ISIS in Nigeria. Nigeria’s Defense Headquarters said the new strikes “follow the neutralization of ISIS commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.” President Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: Lithuania Issues Public Air Alert After Suspected Drone Near Belarus. U.S. carries out second strike against ISIS in Nigeria. Nigeria’s Defense Headquarters said the new strikes “follow the neutralisation of ISIS commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.” President Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. carries out second strike against ISIS in Nigeria. Nigeria’s Defense Headquarters said the new strikes “follow the neutralisation of ISIS commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.” President Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defense announced that on May 17 that its air defense systems intercepted three unmanned aerial vehicles that entered the country from the western border direction. President Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: Possible Airspace Threat Reported in Eastern Latvia; NATO Baltic Air Policing Fighters Activated. Latvia’s Armed Forces reported a possible threat in the country’s airspace over the Kraslava, Ludza, Balvi, and Rezekne municipalities in the eastern Latgale region on May 14. Additional air defense units have been deployed to strengthen capabilities along the eastern border. Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: NATO member Hungary has summoned Russia’s ambassador on May 14 after Russian drone strikes reached Zakarpattia Oblast, Ukraine’s westernmost region sharing a direct border. Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: On May 10 drones targeted a commercial bulk carrier inside Qatari territorial waters, an area within Kuwaiti airspace, and air-defense engagement zones over the United Arab Emirates. Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: On May 7, Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones, and small boats at three U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman. According to the U.S. military, forces intercepted every inbound threat and responded with self-defense strikes on Iranian military facilities. Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: Iran launched 19 projectiles: 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 UAVs against the UAE on May 4, 2026; UAE air defenses engaged all 19, with 3 moderate injuries reported. A drone strike hit an empty ADNOC crude oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on May 4 with no crew casualties. Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive; Iran launched 19 projectiles: 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 UAVs against the UAE on May 4, 2026; UAE air defenses engaged all 19, with 3 moderate injuries reported. A drone strike hit an empty ADNOC crude oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on May 4 with no crew casualties.
Level 2
→
Level 3
Reason: Lowered from DEFCON 2 to DEFCON 3 following IAEA confirmation of no radiological release from the Isfahan strikes. Strait of Hormuz closure and regional tensions keep readiness elevated. Continuing to monitor developments
Level 3
→
Level 2
Reason: U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure; Iranian retaliation on Fifth Fleet; DEFCON raised to 2
Level 3
→
Level 2
Reason: U.S.-Iran war; direct CENTCOM AOR operations
Level 3
→
Level 2
Reason: Nuclear deterrence posture elevated; ICBM readiness
Level 3
→
Level 2
Reason: SOF involvement in Iran operations
Level 3
→
Level 2
Reason: U.S. Strike on Venezuela, capture of Venezuelan President and wife.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: July 7: US Launches Strikes Against Iran In Response To Iranian Targeting Of Commercial Vessels
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. Central Command Launches Strikes on Iranian Targets After Drone Attack on Tanker M/T Kiku
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: CENTCOM: U.S. Strikes Iran In Response To Attack On Commercial Vessel on June 26. The IRGC said that it targeted U.S. positions within the region in response.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum of understanding on June 17.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: On June 15 the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran announced they had reached a memorandum of understanding on the cessation of hostilities and other matters.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: According to U.S. Central Command, U.S. forces intercepted and shot down multiple one-way attack drones that Iran launched in an attempt to strike commercial ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz on June 13.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. President Donald Trump has cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening. The decision followed discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran that reached the highest level of Iranian leadership and received approval from all parties involved.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: CENTCOM: U.S. forces “began launching self-defense strikes against Iran at 5 p.m. ET today at the Commander in Chief’s direction, in response to yesterday’s downing of a U.S. Army Apache helicopter."
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: Iran Fires Ballistic Missiles Toward Israel, U.S. Regional Forces At Heightened Alert. Iranian forces launched multiple waves of ballistic missiles toward Israeli territory beginning June 7. Israeli air defense systems engaged the missiles while sirens activated across several areas through June 8.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. forces in the Middle East shot down two Iranian one-way attack drones that threatened international maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz on June 7.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. forces struck Iranian coastal surveillance radar sites in Goruk and on Qeshm Island to defend against further maritime attacks, and intercepted multiple Iranian ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones launched toward the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf neighbors on June 5.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. Central Command Confirms Self-Defense Strikes in Southern Iran After Explosions Reported Near Bandar Abbas. US Issues Title 42 Order Suspending Entry from Ebola-Affected Countries in Central Africa. Lithuania Issues Public Air Alert After Suspected Drone Near Belarus. U.S. carries out second strike against ISIS in Nigeria. Nigeria’s Defense Headquarters said the new strikes “follow the neutralization of ISIS commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.” President Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: US Issues Title 42 Order Suspending Entry from Ebola-Affected Countries in Central Africa. Lithuania Issues Public Air Alert After Suspected Drone Near Belarus. U.S. carries out second strike against ISIS in Nigeria. Nigeria’s Defense Headquarters said the new strikes “follow the neutralization of ISIS commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.” President Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: Lithuania Issues Public Air Alert After Suspected Drone Near Belarus. U.S. carries out second strike against ISIS in Nigeria. Nigeria’s Defense Headquarters said the new strikes “follow the neutralisation of ISIS commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.” President Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: U.S. carries out second strike against ISIS in Nigeria. Nigeria’s Defense Headquarters said the new strikes “follow the neutralisation of ISIS commander Abu-Bilal al-Minuki.” President Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: The United Arab Emirates Ministry of Defense announced that on May 17 that its air defense systems intercepted three unmanned aerial vehicles that entered the country from the western border direction. President Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: Possible Airspace Threat Reported in Eastern Latvia; NATO Baltic Air Policing Fighters Activated. Latvia’s Armed Forces reported a possible threat in the country’s airspace over the Kraslava, Ludza, Balvi, and Rezekne municipalities in the eastern Latgale region on May 14. Additional air defense units have been deployed to strengthen capabilities along the eastern border. Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: NATO member Hungary has summoned Russia’s ambassador on May 14 after Russian drone strikes reached Zakarpattia Oblast, Ukraine’s westernmost region sharing a direct border. Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: On May 10 drones targeted a commercial bulk carrier inside Qatari territorial waters, an area within Kuwaiti airspace, and air-defense engagement zones over the United Arab Emirates. Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: On May 7, Iranian forces launched multiple missiles, drones, and small boats at three U.S. Navy guided-missile destroyers transiting the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman. According to the U.S. military, forces intercepted every inbound threat and responded with self-defense strikes on Iranian military facilities. Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: Iran launched 19 projectiles: 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 UAVs against the UAE on May 4, 2026; UAE air defenses engaged all 19, with 3 moderate injuries reported. A drone strike hit an empty ADNOC crude oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on May 4 with no crew casualties. Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive.
Level 3
→
Level 3
Reason: Trump announced April 22 that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is extended after Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir requested the U.S. hold its attack on Iran pending a unified Iranian proposal. The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports continues under Trump's April 22 directive; Iran launched 19 projectiles: 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 UAVs against the UAE on May 4, 2026; UAE air defenses engaged all 19, with 3 moderate injuries reported. A drone strike hit an empty ADNOC crude oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on May 4 with no crew casualties.
Level 2
→
Level 3
Reason: Lowered from DEFCON 2 to DEFCON 3 following IAEA confirmation of no radiological release from the Isfahan strikes. Strait of Hormuz closure and regional tensions keep readiness elevated. Continuing to monitor developments
Level 3
→
Level 2
Reason: U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military infrastructure; Iranian retaliation on Fifth Fleet; DEFCON raised to 2
Level 3
→
Level 2
Reason: U.S.-Iran war; direct CENTCOM AOR operations
Level 3
→
Level 2
Reason: Nuclear deterrence posture elevated; ICBM readiness
Level 3
→
Level 2
Reason: SOF involvement in Iran operations
Level 3
→
Level 2
Reason: U.S. Strike on Venezuela, capture of Venezuelan President and wife.