Somalia Conflict: Al-Shabaab Threat & Security Assessment

Overview

Somalia has experienced continuous armed conflict for over three decades, making it one of the longest-running crises in the world. Since the collapse of the Siad Barre government in 1991, the country has struggled with clan-based warfare, warlordism, foreign intervention, and the rise of Islamist militant groups. The emergence of Al-Shabaab in the mid-2000s transformed the conflict into a counterinsurgency fight that draws in regional and international military forces.

The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS), established through a gradual state-building process, controls Mogadishu and some major towns but relies heavily on international support to maintain its authority. President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, elected in 2022, launched an ambitious military offensive against Al-Shabaab with clan militia support, achieving initial territorial gains before the campaign stalled. The government faces the dual challenge of defeating Al-Shabaab while building functional state institutions and managing complex clan dynamics.

This page tracks the security situation in Somalia, including Al-Shabaab operations, international military support, U.S. counterterrorism activities, and the humanitarian impact of the ongoing conflict.

Al-Shabaab Operations

Al-Shabaab (Harakat al-Shabaab al-Mujahideen) is al-Qaeda's East African affiliate and one of the deadliest terrorist organizations in the world. The group controls significant swathes of rural south-central Somalia and operates a parallel governance system, collecting taxes, administering courts, and providing basic services in areas under its control. Al-Shabaab generates an estimated $100-150 million annually through taxation, extortion, charcoal exports, and other revenue streams.

The group conducts a range of operations, from large-scale complex attacks in Mogadishu involving vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) and armed assaults on hotels and government buildings to guerrilla ambushes on military convoys and roadside bombings in rural areas. Al-Shabaab has also carried out devastating cross-border attacks in Kenya, including the 2013 Westgate shopping mall siege and the 2015 Garissa University massacre, demonstrating its ability to project force beyond Somalia's borders.

Despite sustained military pressure, Al-Shabaab has proven remarkably resilient. The group recruits from a deep pool of disaffected youth, exploits grievances related to clan marginalization and government corruption, and adapts its tactics in response to military operations. Its intelligence network penetrates Somali government and security institutions, enabling targeted assassinations and insider attacks. Al-Shabaab's integration with local clan structures makes it extremely difficult to dislodge from areas where it has established deep roots.

ATMIS & International Support

The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which succeeded the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM) in April 2022, is the primary international security force supporting the Somali government. ATMIS comprises approximately 18,000 troops from contributing countries including Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Kenya. The mission's mandate focuses on supporting Somali security forces in degrading Al-Shabaab, protecting key population centers and supply routes, and facilitating the gradual transfer of security responsibilities to Somali forces.

ATMIS is undergoing a phased drawdown, with the goal of transferring full security responsibility to Somali forces by the end of its mandate. This transition has prompted scrutiny over whether Somalia's military and police are ready to assume control, particularly in areas where ATMIS forces have been the primary bulwark against Al-Shabaab. Previous drawdown attempts have seen Al-Shabaab quickly reoccupy vacated positions, and the Somali National Army continues to face challenges with training, equipment, morale, and command cohesion.

International support extends beyond ATMIS. The European Union provides training and capacity-building for Somali security forces through the EU Training Mission. Turkey has established its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu and provides training and equipment to Somali forces. The United Kingdom, Italy, and other nations contribute to various security sector reform programs. Financial support for the Somali security forces remains a critical challenge, as the government struggles to pay and equip its troops consistently.

U.S. Military Operations

The United States maintains an active counterterrorism campaign in Somalia, primarily conducted by U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM). U.S. operations include airstrikes against Al-Shabaab leaders and operational targets, advisory support to Somali special operations forces (Danab), intelligence sharing, and logistical assistance. U.S. forces, numbering in the hundreds, operate from bases in Somalia and neighboring Djibouti, where the U.S. maintains its only permanent military installation in Africa, Camp Lemonnier.

The U.S. approach to Somalia has fluctuated with administrations. The Trump administration authorized expanded airstrike authorities in 2017, the Biden administration redeployed forces after Trump had ordered their withdrawal, and the current posture maintains a persistent presence focused on counter-terrorism and partner force development. U.S. airstrikes have killed numerous senior Al-Shabaab commanders and operatives, though the group has consistently replaced losses in its leadership ranks.

The Danab brigade, Somalia's U.S.-trained elite light infantry force, is considered the most capable unit in the Somali military. Danab conducts offensive operations against Al-Shabaab with U.S. advisory and intelligence support, and has played a key role in clearing operations in south-central Somalia. Expanding the Danab model to other Somali military units is a long-term U.S. objective, though the scale of institutional reform required is immense.

Humanitarian Impact

Somalia faces one of the world's most protracted humanitarian crises, driven by the intersection of armed conflict, climate change, and state fragility. Millions of Somalis depend on humanitarian assistance for survival, and recurring droughts and floods have compounded the effects of the conflict. The 2021-2023 drought, the worst in four decades, pushed millions to the brink of famine and displaced over a million people, adding to the approximately 3 million already internally displaced.

Al-Shabaab's control of territory severely restricts humanitarian access to populations in need. Aid organizations face attacks, extortion, and operational constraints in Al-Shabaab-held areas, and the group has historically banned certain international organizations from operating in its territory. The diversion of aid and taxation of humanitarian supplies by armed groups remains a persistent challenge, forcing difficult decisions about how to deliver assistance to civilians trapped in conflict zones.

The humanitarian situation is further complicated by clan-based displacement, where communities are forced from their homes not only by Al-Shabaab but by inter-clan disputes over land and resources. Displacement camps around Mogadishu and other major cities have become semi-permanent settlements with limited access to clean water, sanitation, healthcare, and education. The combination of conflict, climate shocks, and poverty has created a cycle of vulnerability that remains one of the most difficult humanitarian challenges globally.

Related Coverage